Tatiana Demina, Nataliya Vysotskaya, Maria Vilisova, Vladimir Sekerin, Anna Gorokhova


Objective: The purpose of this study is to develop a toolkit that allows you to effectively predict the decision of the Central Bank to change the key rate.

Methods: Using the methods of correlation analysis and multiple linear regression, a model has been built that shows that there is a close relationship between the key rate and inflation, the volume of currency in circulation, and inflation expectations of the population.

Result: The results of the study are consistent with the findings presented in previous works, indicating that inflation is the main factor in making decisions about raising and/or lowering the key rate.

Conclusion: The findings of the study suggest that a more thorough analysis of additional factors is necessary, which will allow for the development of a qualitative forecast of economic growth and outline ways to stabilize prices. As a result of the analysis, an equation is obtained that can be used to predict the level of the key rate when certain macroeconomic indicators change.


Interest rates; Monetary policy; Inflation; Regulation; Inflation expectations

Texto completo:

PDF (English)


Akalpler, E., & Duhok, D. (2018). Does monetary policy affect growth: Evidence from Malaysia. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 34(1), 2-20.

Aleksandrova, L. (2021, October 22). Economists are sad about the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank by 0.75 points. Interview with experts. Retrieved from

Alves, J., Afonso, A., & Balhote, R. (2019). Interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Journal of Applied Economics, 22(1), 131-150.

Ampudia, M., & Heuvel, S. J. V. (2018). Monetary policy and the cost of bank capital during low interest rates. ECB Working Paper No. 2199.

Ballach, S., & Kobi, Ya. (2019). Low rates and the supply of bank loans: Theory and evidence from Japan: Technical report. Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. Retrieved from

Bank of Russia. (2021a). Inflationary expectations and consumer sentiment No. 10(58). Information and analytical commentary. Retrieved from

Bank of Russia. (2021b). Banking sector liquidity and financial markets No. 10(68). Information and analytical commentary. Retrieved from

Bhunia, А. (2016). How inflation and interest rates are related to economic growth? A Case of India. Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4(1), 20-26.

Borio, C., & Gambacorta, L. (2017). Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness? Journal of Macroeconomics, 54(B), 217-231.

Casaqui, V. (2021). Life narratives of entrepreneurs and culture of inspiration: the communicational aspect of captalism as religion. ESG Law Review, 4, e01526.

Cunha, M. do N. (2021). Research paths in Communication and Religion: Pathways and emerging paths. ESG Law Review, 4, e1521.

Eggertsson, G. B., Juelsrud, R. E., Summers, L., & Wald, E. G. (2019). Negative nominal interest rates and a bank lending channel. NBER Working Paper 25416. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Gashchyshyn, A., Marushchak, K., Sukhomlyn, O., & Tarasenko, A. (2020). How does the interest rate influence the exchange rate? Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 250, 4-14.

Gonçalves, H. L. ., & Bittencourt, L. P. (2020). O Uso De Tecnologia E As Práticas Pedagogicas Inclusivas. ESG Law Review, 5, e01533.

Goole, E., & Ekinchi, A. (2006). The causal relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation: the case of Turkey. Scientific Journal of Administrative Development, 4, 54-69.

Guris, S., Guris, B., & Un, T. (2016). Interest rates, Fischer effect and economic development in Turkey, 1989-2011. Revista Galega de Economía, 25(2), 95-100.

Hassen, G., & Hamdi, K. (2020). The Impact of monetary policy on general and sectoral economic growth: Evidence from the Tunisian Central Bank during crisis. International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 13(5), 471-484.

International Monetary Fund. (2021, April). World economic outlook: Managing divergent recoveries. Washington, DC. Retrieved from

Izvestiya. (2021, April 23). Experts assessed the decision of the Central Bank to raise the key rate to 5%. Retrieved from

Kamps, Ch., Cimadomo, J., Hauptmeier, S., & Leiner-Killinger, N. (2017). Reflections on the Euro Area fiscal stance. Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 52(3), 125–131.

Kilchi, E. (2018). Analysis of the relationship between inflation and interest rates in Turkey: Fourier's approach. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 22, 135-146.

Kylie, M. T., & Roberts, J. M. (2017). Monetary policy in a low interest rate world. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 48(1), 317-396.

Lee, K. -S., & Werner, R. (2018). Reconsidering monetary policy: an empirical examination of the relationship between interest rates and nominal GDP growth in the US, UK, Germany and Japan. Ecological Economics, 146, 26-34.

LLC "inFOM". (2021, October). Measurement of inflation expectations and consumer sentiment based on population surveys. Analytical report of the Central Bank on the tenth survey. Retrieved from

Lochan, S. A., Rozanova, T. P., Bezpalov, V. V., & Fedyunin, D. V. (2021). Supply chain management and risk management in an environment of stochastic uncertainty (Retail). Risks, 9(11), 197.

Lola, I. S., & Ostapkovich, G. V. (2021). Business activity of industrial enterprises in Russia: trends in post-crisis recovery in 2021. Investments in Russia, 9, 19-24.

Manuylenko, V. V., & Shebzukhova, M. A. (2021). Theory for financial controlling in corporations in the modern environment. Universal Journal of Accounting and Finance, 9(4), 773-782.

Miftahu, I. (2019). Relative impact of monetary and fiscal policy on output growth in a small-open economy. American Research Journal of Humanities Social Science, 2(8), 26-38.

Monsalve-Cobis, A.E., Gonzãlez-Manteiga, W., & Stute, W. (2017). The Statistical impact of inflation on interest rates. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 46(14), 1-10.

Moreira, R., & Zambon Monte, E. (2021). Monetary and fiscal policies interaction in a large emerging economy: Which is the leader policy? International Journal of Economics and Finance, 13(11), 81-91.

Neri, S., & Ropele, T. (2019). Disinflationary shocks and inflation target uncertainty. Economics Letters, 181(C), 77-80.

Özen, E., Özdemir, L., & Grima, S. (2020). The Relationship between the exchange rate, interest rate and inflation: The Case of Turkey. Scientific Chronicle of Economics and Business, 67(2), 259-275.

Partachi, I., & Mija, S. (2015). Monetary policy – Instrument for macroeconomic stabilization. Procedia Economics and Finance, 20, 485-493.

Paun, D., Manta, S., & Mihaela, S. (2013). The Influence of money supply and interest rate on inflation. China-USA Business Review, 12(6), 543-551.

Petrova, N. (2021, July 23). Money will become more expensive: the Central Bank announced the "verdict" to the economy. Why did the Central Bank sharply raise the key rate and what should be prepared for. Interview with experts. Retrieved from

Polyakova, I. S. (2021). System analysis of the relationship between inflationary processes and the key rate. Trends in the Development of Science and Education, 76, 137-140.

Silva, C., & Vilela, F. (2017). Monetary and fiscal policy in developed and developing countries: an analysis before and after the financial crisis. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 63, 13-20.

Smets, F. (2014). Financial stability and monetary policy: How closely interlinked? International Journal of Central Banking, 10(2), 263-300.

Tsakaev, A. Kh., & Saidov, Z. A. (2021). Transformation of the monetary policy fundamentals of the Bank of Russia: Macroeconomic outlook and neutral interest rate. Bulletin of the Chechen State University, 1(41), 5-14.

Yuzvovich, L., Razumovskaya, E., Maramygin, M., Ponkratov, V., Kuznetsov, N., & Bashkirova, N. (2020). Econometric model of the impact of the interest rate on the economic development. Industrial Engineering & Management Systems, 19, 254-265.

Zhilenko, V. Yu., Amirova, E. F., Lomakin, D. E., Smoktal, N. N., & Khamkhoeva, F. Ya. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy and environment. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 12(5), 1236-1241.



  • Não há apontamentos.

Revista Jurídica e-ISSN: 2316-753X

Rua Chile, 1678, Rebouças, Curitiba/PR (Brasil). CEP 80.220-181

Licença Creative Commons

Este obra está licenciado com uma Licença Creative Commons Atribuição-NãoComercial 4.0 Internacional.