LOAN DEBT BURDEN OF THE POPULATION IN CONSTITUENT ENTITIES OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Ivan N. Vilkov, Irina A. Liman, Elena P. Kiselitsa

Abstract


Background: In an unstable macroeconomic situation, the high loan debt burden of the population creates significant social risks associated with the declining well-being of citizens. For the timely development of measures to prevent and minimize these risks, it is necessary to use a system of indicators to adequately assess the debt load burden of the population both in the country as a whole and in certain regions. Objective: The article aims to assess the debt burden of the population in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation based on the PTI indicator (pay-to-income ratio means the ratio of the borrower's monthly payment on all the loans (principal debt and interest) to their average monthly income). Methods: The main research methods are as follows: generalization and analysis, grouping, comparative and correlation analysis. Results: The authors have developed a methodical approach to calculating the PTI indicator based on open information sources. According to this approach, the PTI indicator has been calculated for regions of the Russian Federation for the first time. The authors have assessed this indicator for the total debt burden of the population, including mortgages and other loans. Based on the analysis, the relationship between the debt burden and income of the population, the debt burden of the population on mortgage loans, and housing affordability have been identified.


Keywords


Loan exposure; Loan debt burden; Household debt load in regions; PTI; Pay-to-income ratio

Full Text:

PDF

References


Aizcorbe, A.M., Kennickell, A.B., & Moore, K.B. (2003). Recent changes in U.S. family finances: evidence from the 1998 and 2001 survey of consumer finances. Federal Reserve Bulletin, 89(1), 1-32.

Batashev, R.V. (2016). Statisticheskij podhod k ocenivaniyu vliyaniya kreditov na uroven potrebleniya rossijskih semej [Statistical approach to assessing the impact of loans on the level of Russian families consumption]. Izvestiya vysshih uchebnyh zavedenij. Severo-Kavkazskij region. Obshchestvennye nauki, 3, 67-72. (In Russ.).

Batashev, R.V., & Tregubova, A.A. (2016). Vzaimosvyaz tekushchego ekonomicheskogo krizisa s dinamikoj kreditnoj nagruzki regionov [Relationship of the current economic crisis with the dynamics of regional credit burden]. Uchet i statistika [Accounting and Statistics], 2, 38-50. (In Russ.)

Belekhova, G.V. (2017). Finansovoe povedenie naseleniya: Sovremennye trendy i factory [Financial behavior of the population: Contemporary trends and factors]. Socialnoe prostranstvo, 2, 1-15. (In Russ.).

Bulatova, V.B., Yakovleva, I.A., & Burlov, D.Y. (2017). Zakreditovannost socialno uyazvimyh sloev naseleniya: Problemy i puti ih resheniya [The debt load of socially vulnerable segments of the population: Problems and ways of solution]. Vestnik VSGUTU, 2, 77-85. (In Russ.).

Chmelar, A. (2012). Household debt in Europe's periphery: The dangers of a prolonged recession. ECRI Commentary No. 12, November 22. Brussels: European Credit Research Institute.

Christen, M., & Morgan, R. (2005). Keeping up with the joneses: Analyzing the effect of income inequality on consumer borrowing. Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 3(2), 145-173.

D'Alessio, G., & Lezzi, S. (2013). Household overindebtedness: Definition and measurement with Italian data. Questioni di Economia e Finanza [Occasional Papers]. Bank of Italy, No. 149.

Donec, S.A. & Ponomarenko, A.A. (2017). Indikatory dolgovoj nagruzki [Debt burden indicators]. Dengi i kredit, 4, 5-13. (In Russ.).

Drehmann, M., & Juselius, M. (2012). Do debt service costs affect macroeconomic and financial stability? BIS Quarterly Review, 9, 21-35.

Dynan, K.E., Skinner, J., & Zeldes, S.P. (2004). Do the rich save more? Journal of Political Economy, 112(21), 397-444.

Friedman, M.F. (1957). A theory of the consumption function. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Heidhues, P., & Koszegi, B. (2010). Exploiting naiveté about self-control in the credit market. American Economic Review, 100(5), 2279-2303.

Krueger, D., & Perri, F. (2005). Does income inequality lead to consumption inequality? Evidence and theory. The Review of Economic Studies, 73(1), 163-193.

KUAP.RU. (2020). Retrieved from https://kuap.ru (access date: August 12, 2020).

Kuzina, O.E. (2011). Analiz dinamiki polzovaniya bankovskimi kreditami i dolgovoj nagruzki rossiyan [Analysis of the dynamics of Russians' bank loans and debt burden]. Dengi i kredit, 11, 30-36. (In Russ.).

Kuzina, O.E., & Krupenskij, N.A. (2018). Perekreditovannost rossiyan: Mif ili realnost? [Over-indebtedness of Russians: Myth or reality?]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 11, 85-104. (In Russ.).

Lugachev, E.M. (2014). Neravenstvo dohodov i uroven kreditnoj nagruzki domashnih hozyajstv v gorodah Rossii [Income inequality and the level of household credit burden in Russian cities]. Upravlenie korporativnymi finansami, 5, 312-326. (In Russ.).

Meier, S., & Sprenger, C. (2010). Present-based preferences and credit card borrowing. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2(1), 193-210.

Mereminskaya, E., Miheeva, A., & Chervonnaya, A. (2019, October 31). Kreditnaya nagruzka rossiyan dostigla maksimuma s 2012 goda [The credit burden of Russians has reached its maximum since 2012]. Retrieved from https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2019/10/31/815196-kreditnaya-nagruzka (In Russ.).

Natsionalnoe byuro kreditnykh istorii [The National Bureau of Credit Histories]. (2020). Retrieved from https://www.nbki.ru (access date: August 12, 2020).

Olney, M.L. (1999). Avoiding default: The role of credit in the consumption collapse of 1930. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 319-335.

Perry, V. (2008). Giving credit where credit is due: The psychology of credit ratings. Behavioral Finance, 9(1), 15-21.

RIA Rating. (2020). Retrieved from https://riarating.ru/docs/about/methodology.html (access date: August 12, 2020).

Sarunova, M.P., Berikova, N.B., Mandzhieva, D.V., & Harlashkeeva, S.B. (2018). Analiz kreditnoj nagruzki regionov Rossijskoj Federacii [Credit burden analysis of the regions of the Russian Federation]. Rossijskij ekonomicheskij internet-zhurnal, 4, 102. (In Russ.).

Selivanova, M.A., & Ilinyh, Yu.M. (2018). Problemy zakreditovannosti naseleniya Rossii i Altajskogo kraya [Problem debt burden of the population of Russia and the Altai Territory]. Uroven zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii, 14(4), 54-60. https://doi.org/10.24411/1999-9836-2018-10039 (In Russ.).

Tsentralnyi bank Rossiiskoi Federatsii [The Central Bank of the Russian Federation]. (2020). Retrieved from https://cbr.ru (access date: August 12, 2020).

Vedomosti. (2019, September 4). Oreshkin: Banki dolzhny nesti otvetstvennost za zakreditovannost rossiyan [Oreshkin: Banks should be responsible for the debt load of Russians]. Retrieved from https://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/news/2019/09/04/810417-oreshkin (access date: August 12, 2020).

Yakushev, E. (2019, July 5). V neoplatnom dolgu: Pochemu zakreditovannost naseleniya opasna dlya gosudarstva [In unpaid debt: Why the population's debt is dangerous for the state]. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.ru/finansy-i-investicii/379435-v-neoplatnom-dolgu-pochemu-zakreditovannost-naseleniya-opasna-dlya




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21902/Revrima.v6i39.6121

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Bookmark and Share


Brazilian Journal of Law and International Relations e-ISSN: 2316-2880

Rua Chile, 1678, Rebouças, Curitiba/PR (Brazil). CEP 80.220-181