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Enviar artigo via e-mail THE AMOC COLLAPSE AND ATLANTIC COLD BLOB: CHALLENGES FOR INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE LAW AND GLOBAL OCEAN GOVERNANCE IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
Resumo
Objective: This article examines the challenges that the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the development of the North Atlantic cold blob pose to international climate law and global ocean governance. It assesses the adequacy of existing international legal instruments in preventing, mitigating and addressing systemic ocean-related climate risks, with particular emphasis on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Paris Agreement and the Agreement on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ Agreement).
Methodology: The study adopts a qualitative, deductive and interdisciplinary approach, based on a bibliographic and documentary review of international treaties, scientific literature, reports and relevant regulatory frameworks. It combines scientific knowledge concerning AMOC dynamics, freshwater influx, ocean circulation and climate tipping points with a legal analysis of international environmental protection, climate governance and the law of the sea. Particular attention is paid to States’ obligations of prevention, due diligence, international cooperation and environmental protection, as well as to the institutional and normative fragmentation affecting global ocean governance.
Results: The findings indicate that the potential weakening or collapse of the AMOC constitutes a systemic climate risk with potentially far-reaching consequences for weather patterns, marine biodiversity, food security, economic stability, human mobility and international security. The analysis identifies significant limitations in the capacity of existing international legal frameworks to address interconnected ocean and climate risks in an integrated and preventive manner. Although UNCLOS establishes important obligations to protect and preserve the marine environment, and the BBNJ Agreement provides additional mechanisms for marine biodiversity conservation, environmental impact assessment, capacity-building and the transfer of marine technology, their effectiveness depends on coherent implementation and institutional cooperation. The study also highlights the importance of applying precautionary approaches, strengthening scientific monitoring and addressing inequalities in global ocean governance.
Conclusions: The article concludes that the potential AMOC crisis requires a transition from fragmented and predominantly reactive approaches towards integrated, preventive and adaptive ocean governance. Strengthening international cooperation, implementing existing legal obligations, improving early-warning and monitoring systems, and coordinating climate and marine environmental policies are essential to reducing systemic risks. The effective integration of UNCLOS, the Paris Agreement and the BBNJ Agreement, supported by scientific evidence and equitable international cooperation, can contribute to greater ocean resilience and legal certainty. Ultimately, safeguarding the stability of ocean circulation systems is a critical component of international climate action, environmental protection and global security.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21902/Revrima.v4i54.8404
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