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CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE LABOR SHORTAGE IN RUSSIA: A MACROECONOMIC APPROACH
Resumo
Objective: This article examines the causes and macroeconomic consequences of labor shortages in Russia, comparing them with global trends and specifically focusing on the period from 2000 to 2023. The study aims to understand how these shortages impact the economy in terms of GDP production, personal income, and tax revenues.
Methods: Utilizing a case-study approach, the research analyzes labor shortages in Russia and compares them with the United States and Germany. It employs a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, drawing data from the Federal State Statistics Service and international databases such as the OECD and World Bank. The study includes a comprehensive review of labor market trends and the application of theoretical models to analyze the impact of labor shortages on economic indicators.
Results: The study finds that Russia faces unique challenges compared to Western economies due to its demographic trends, economic structure, and policy environment. Unlike in the US and Germany, where increases in job vacancies tend to alleviate unemployment, Russia shows little correlation between job vacancies and unemployment rates, indicating deeper structural issues. The research highlights significant macroeconomic losses due to labor shortages, including underproduction of GDP, unrealized personal income, and reduced tax contributions to the national budget.
Conclusions: The study concludes that labor shortages in Russia are a critical barrier to economic growth, necessitating comprehensive policy responses. It recommends targeted measures to enhance workforce mobility, skill development, and incentives for labor market participation to address the mismatch between labor supply and demand.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21902/Revrima.v3i45.7417
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